Journal · Miami Neighborhoods
By Josh Stein · Florida license SL3057661 · Updated 8 October 2026
Luxury sales growth, Q1 2026
The fastest-growing submarket is also one of the thinner ones. Both facts belong in the same sentence.
In the Miami-Dade county record, Coconut Grove and Coral Gables together recorded 35 qualified condominium sales of $1M or more in Q1 2026, up from 28 in Q1 2025 (+25%). That is the fastest growth of Miami’s three main luxury submarkets: Greater Downtown was flat at 130, and Miami Beach fell from 228 to 116. These counts cover the 447 Miami-Dade buildings we track, not every condominium in the county.
What is driving it
Three things, and none of them is a marketing campaign.
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A small base. 35 recorded sales is less than a third of Miami Beach’s 116 in the same quarter, so each additional closing moves the percentage further than it would on the Beach.
Constrained supply. Neither the Grove nor the Gables has the tower density of Brickell or the Beach, so the luxury condominium stock is limited and buyers who want an apartment there choose from a short list of buildings.
Genuine new supply at the top. The Grove has new branded product, including the delivered Mr. C Residences and a Four Seasons tower now under construction (2028, per our Delivery Tracker), which broadens the buyer pool beyond people who were already looking there.
What growth does not tell you
Thirty-five recorded sales is a real market, and a thinner one than Miami Beach’s 116. Fast growth on a smaller base is the normal shape of these numbers, and it has a practical consequence: comparables are scarcer.
Scarce comparables cut both ways. A seller can more easily defend an ambitious price, because there is less evidence against it. A buyer can more easily argue the opposite, for the same reason. Appraisals become the pressure point.
How to buy into it
Get the comparable set before you fall in love with an apartment — and be honest about how many genuinely comparable sales exist. Three is a range. Twelve is a market.
Then do the building diligence: the milestone inspection, the reserve study, the insurance, and — since 3 August 2026 — whether a buyer can get a conventional Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loan in the building (Fannie Mae LL-2026-03, 18 March 2026).
The one-line version
Fastest-growing is not the same as deepest, and the strategy for buying into each is different. In the Grove and the Gables, growth is real, evidence is thinner, and the diligence is a building diligence as much as a unit diligence.
Grove or Gables — get the record for the building you want
Fast-growing is a neighbourhood statistic. What you will pay, and what you could resell for, is a building statistic. Tell Josh the building and he’ll send what the county record shows, plus what is actually available.
Frequently asked questions
Which Miami luxury market is growing fastest?
Coconut Grove and Coral Gables. The county record shows 35 qualified condominium sales of $1M or more in Q1 2026, up from 28 a year earlier (+25%), while Greater Downtown was flat and Miami Beach fell.
Why are the Grove and the Gables growing faster than the Beach?
They are growing from a small, supply-constrained luxury condominium base — 35 recorded sales in Q1 2026 against Miami Beach’s 116, per the Miami-Dade county record. The Grove also has new branded product, including the delivered Mr. C Residences and a Four Seasons tower under construction.
What is the risk of buying in a fast-growing but thinner market?
Comparable sales are scarcer, which makes valuation harder to defend and puts more weight on the appraisal.
How has your building held its value? The Miami Condo Index ranks Miami condo buildings by their county sale records: real price per square foot, turnover and four-year change.
Sources and further reading
- Miami-Dade County Property Appraiser, qualified condominium sales of $1M or more in 447 buildings tracked by Josh Stein Realtor, retrieved September 2026miamidadepa.gov
- Josh Stein Realtor — Miami Pre-Construction Delivery Tracker, 4 August 2026joshsteinrealtor.com
- Fannie Mae — Lender Letter LL-2026-03, 18 March 2026singlefamily.fanniemae.com