Journal · In the News
By Josh Stein · Florida license SL3057661 · Updated 2 November 2026
On the record: Redfin reported on 14 October 2026 that the Miami metro had an estimated 18,909 sellers and 7,304 buyers in September 2026, which it states as 158.9% more sellers than buyers, up from 134.5% in August. That was the largest gap of the 50 metros it analyzed. I am not making a forecast, up or down.
What Redfin is counting
Redfin’s “sellers” are simply active listings in the MLS, and its “buyers” are an estimate built from tour timing, listings and pending sales, seasonally adjusted and subject to revision (Redfin, 14 October 2026). It calls any market with over 10% more sellers than buyers a buyer’s market, and by that line 41 of the 50 metros qualified. Nationally the gap was 62.6%, and Fort Lauderdale’s was 117.8%.
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Last updated November 2, 2026, 4:42 pm
The report gives one number for the whole metro. It does not break out oceanfront condos, or homes above any price, so it cannot say what is happening in a single building or at the top of the market.
What the forecast says
Home Buying Institute (Brandon Cornett, 1 November 2026) forecasts that Miami will keep favoring buyers well into 2027, with prices stable or rising slowly, more inventory, and condos having a harder time than single-family homes. It also expects mortgage rates above 7% through 2027. The article calls its outlook “the equivalent of an educated guess” and describes no method.
The one rate I can check is the current one: Freddie Mac’s 30-year average was 7.24% on 29 October 2026, down from 7.32% the week before and up from 6.17% a year earlier.
What Miami-Dade County data can say
JSR’s county pulls cover recorded condo sales in specific buildings, not the whole market, so they neither confirm nor contradict Redfin’s count. For context only, the medians of qualified sales in 2025 (rollups dated 3 September 2026) were:
- Miami Beach: 335 sales, median $1,320,000 (30 buildings).
- Sunny Isles Beach: 285 sales, median $1,800,000 (29 buildings).
- Bal Harbour: 53 sales, median $3,300,000 (8 buildings).
- Surfside: 19 sales, median $9,300,000 (6 buildings).
These are past, recorded sales. A recorded sale is not a forecast, and I am not reading a direction into them.
My view
A metro number tells you the general mood. If you are buying or selling, the useful number is what units in that building sold for, and when.
Where to go from here
The free Miami Buyer’s Guide shows what buyers paid on the county record, and the Sellers Guide covers pricing against recorded sales. Building-level sales for the beach are on Miami Beach condos.
Josh Stein is a sales associate with LoKation Real Estate. Questions? Call or WhatsApp (305) 695-8257.
Sources: Redfin, Dana Anderson and Asad Khan, 14 October 2026; Home Buying Institute, Brandon Cornett, 1 November 2026 (also seen as a NewsBreak copy); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 29 October 2026; Miami-Dade County Property Appraiser records as pulled by JSR, rollups dated 3 September 2026. All articles read 2 November 2026. County figures are JSR’s analysis of recorded condo sales and are not a forecast.
How has your building held its value? The Miami Condo Index ranks Miami condo buildings by their county sale records: real price per square foot, turnover and four-year change.