The Satellite Study Behind the “Sinking Miami Condos” Headlines: What It Found

By Josh Stein — Miami real estate sales associate, Florida license SL3057661. Selling Miami luxury property since 2002, with more than $1 billion closed.

Key Takeaways

• 35 buildings along the Miami Beach to Sunny Isles Beach coastline showed subsidence between 2016 and 2023, per a University of Miami Rosenstiel School study published on 13 December 2024 in the AGU journal Earth and Space Science.
• The measured settlement ranged from 2 to 8 centimetres, most of it in Sunny Isles Beach and, to a lesser extent, Surfside, per the university’s release of the same date. It also found subsidence at two buildings in Miami Beach and one in Bal Harbour.
• The study did not find settlement behind the Surfside collapse. “No displacement signals were detected before the collapse, indicating that settlement was not the cause of collapse,” the release says of Champlain Towers South.
• The headlines are recent; the study is not. Videos circulating in September 2026 about “35 sinking condos” trace back to this December 2024 paper.

What the study measured

The University of Miami reported on 13 December 2024 that “35 buildings along the Miami Beach to Sunny Isles Beach coastline are experiencing subsidence, a process where the ground sinks or settles.”

The method was satellite radar. Per the same release, the team combined “222 SAR images from the European Sentinel-1 satellites” to build a time series of surface movement, using fixed points on buildings, such as balconies and rooftop air-conditioning units, as reference points. The release says satellites flying at 700 kilometres “can measure millimeter-scale displacements.”

The result, per the release: “subsidence ranging from two to eight centimeters, with the most significant effects in Sunny Isles Beach and, to a lesser extent, Surfside.” Eight centimetres is a little over three inches, spread over seven years.

Why the authors think it is happening

New towers are expected to settle during and after construction. What the study found, per the university’s release of 13 December 2024, is that in some buildings it keeps going.

“We found that subsidence in most high-rises slows down over time, but in some cases, it continues at a steady rate,” the study’s senior author, Falk Amelung, said in the release.

The researchers link it to the ground under the coast. Per the release, Miami’s subsurface is limestone with layers of sand in it, and the authors suggest the sand grains shift under the weight of a tower and the vibration of foundation work nearby. They also point to daily tidal flow and groundwater movement, and say whether stormwater injection contributes “warrants further investigation.”

What the authors said about safety

The release is careful, and a buyer should read it the same way.

• On Surfside: “No displacement signals were detected before the collapse, indicating that settlement was not the cause of collapse.”
• On what is still unknown: the team’s next priority is “determining whether differential settlement—where different parts of a structure sink at varying rates—is occurring and potentially causing long-term damage.” The release says tentative evidence of 1 to 2 centimetres of that kind of settlement was found and that “further investigation is required.”
• On monitoring: co-author Antonio Nanni said “Residents and authorities should be informed about any subsidence occurring of their buildings and the rate at which it occurs,” and called for a public database like those in Europe.

The study does not say any building is unsafe. It says settlement is measurable from space, that it can persist, and that it should be watched.

What to ask before you buy on the coast

• Has the association had the building’s settlement or structural monitoring reviewed? Florida’s post-Surfside milestone inspections are the formal check. Ask for the most recent report and read it.
• What do the reserve study and the structural integrity reserve study say? Both are required for most Florida condominiums of three storeys or more.
• Is there active construction next door? The study connects vibration from nearby foundation work to settlement.
• What has the building actually resold for? Settlement concerns, when they are real, show up in prices. JSR’s Miami Resale Record has the county-recorded resale outcomes for 234 buildings.

Record checked 23 September 2026. JSR did not seek comment.