Miami’s condo market is the one part of this city where buyers genuinely have leverage. As of January 2026 there are 13.7 months of supply, the median condo sells for $420,000, and units take 71 days to go under contract. Anything above roughly six months of supply favours the buyer. Condos are at more than double that.
Single-family houses, by contrast, sit at 6.4 months — balanced. Same city, same month, completely different negotiation. The leverage you have been reading about is real, and it lives here.
Key Takeaways
- 13.7 months of supply and 12,509 active listings — a clear buyer’s market, and the only one in Miami.
- Median condo price $420,000; median $1,040 per square foot in the $1M+ tier, down 3.7% year over year.
- Luxury volume is rising while price per foot falls — 424 luxury sales in Q1 2026, up 15.2%, and the $2M+ tier up 25.9% at 11.6% less per square foot.
- 54.2% of condo buyers pay cash. Financing is a competitive disadvantage here in a way it is not for houses.
- The homework is structural, not cosmetic: milestone inspection status and the SIRS reserve study decide whether a good-looking unit is a good buy.
Why Condo Buyers Have Leverage and House Buyers Do Not
| January 2026 | Condos | Single-family |
|---|---|---|
| Months of supply | 13.7 — buyer’s market | 6.4 — balanced |
| Median price | $420,000 | $699,990 |
| Days to contract | 71 | 53 |
| Percent of original list received | 93% | 94% |
| Cash share | 54.2% | 32.7% |
| Active listings | 12,509 (+4.2%) | 5,433 (+9%) |
Source: MIAMI REALTORS, Miami-Dade January 2026 residential report.
The reason for the split is not mysterious. Rising insurance costs and structural assessments have pushed more condo owners to list, while house owners have stayed put. That is the whole story, and it is why advice written for one half of this market is actively misleading for the other.
The Homework That Actually Decides the Purchase
Since the Surfside collapse, Florida has rewritten the rules for condo buildings — and those rules now determine whether a well-priced unit is a bargain or a liability. This is the part to get right before you write an offer.
Milestone inspections
Residential condominium and cooperative buildings of three or more habitable stories must undergo a milestone inspection at 30 years from the certificate of occupancy — and local agencies in coastal, saltwater-exposed areas may require it at 25 years. Phase 1 is a structural evaluation due within 180 days of official notice; Phase 2 is only triggered if Phase 1 finds substantial deterioration.
Deadlines have been rolling through: buildings that hit 30 years before July 2022 were due by 31 December 2024, those reaching 30 years between July 2022 and December 2024 by 31 December 2025, and buildings reaching 30 years during 2026 are due by 31 December 2026.
The SIRS — Structural Integrity Reserve Study
The SIRS sets out what the building’s structural components will cost to replace and when. For 2026 the reporting threshold is $25,675, adjusted from $25,000. Associations that previously waived reserves were required to begin contributions on 1 January 2026.
What changed under HB 913
Florida’s CS/CS/HB 913 — Chapter 2025-175, Laws of Florida, approved 23 June 2025 and effective 1 July 2025 — tightened the regime further. Repairs must now commence within 365 days of the local enforcement agency receiving the Phase 2 report. Engineers and contractors bidding on resulting repair work face new conflict-of-interest disclosure rules. And associations that completed an inspection within the previous two years may, with a majority owner vote, reduce or pause reserve contributions for two consecutive budgets where funds are directed at inspection-related repairs.
That last provision matters to you as a buyer. A building showing low reserve contributions is not automatically well run or badly run — it may be operating under a lawful, temporary pause. You need the documents to tell the difference.
What to ask for before you offer
- The milestone inspection report — Phase 1, and Phase 2 if one exists.
- The SIRS, and the reserve balance against what it recommends.
- Any assessment voted, pending or contemplated — including board minutes for the last 12 months.
- The current insurance premium and its trajectory over the last three renewals.
None of this is exotic. It is the difference between a $420,000 condo and a $420,000 condo with a $90,000 assessment attached to it, and it is the single most useful thing I do for buyers in this market.
The financing problem that decides which condos you can even buy
This is the part of the Miami condo market almost nobody explains to buyers, and it matters more than the asking price.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac maintain a list of condominium projects they will not lend against. Around 700 buildings across Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach are currently ineligible, out of 1,438 statewide — a figure that has roughly doubled in two years. The list is not published publicly, which is why buyers routinely discover the problem weeks into a transaction.
If a building is on it, conventional financing is off the table. Owners are left with cash buyers, seller financing or specialist lenders — and the price reflects it. Units in ineligible buildings typically trade 15% to 30% below comparable units in eligible ones.
What makes a building non-warrantable
- Reserves below 10% of the annual budget — rising to 15% from 4 January 2027.
- Delinquencies of 15% or more of units 60+ days behind on assessments.
- Single-entity ownership above 20% of units in projects of 21 units or more.
- Commercial space exceeding 35% of the project.
- Deferred maintenance or inadequate insurance — the two most common triggers in South Florida since Surfside.
⚠️ The rules change on 3 August 2026
Four changes land through 2026 and into 2027, and one of them is imminent:
- 18 March 2026 — investor concentration limits removed, small-condo waiver expanded, roof actual-cash-value carve-out.
- 1 July 2026 — master insurance per-unit deductible capped at $50,000.
- 3 August 2026 — Limited Review is eliminated. Limited Review historically covered roughly 40% of all condo project reviews and let lenders approve a unit without a full project assessment. From this date every project faces full review.
- 4 January 2027 — minimum reserve allocation rises from 10% to 15% of annual budgeted assessment income.
What that means in practice: buildings that scraped through on a Limited Review will now be examined properly. Expect more buildings to be found ineligible over the next two quarters, not fewer — and expect some sellers to be genuinely unaware their building has a financing problem until a buyer’s lender finds it.
The flip side is the opportunity. A well-run building with real reserves is about to become measurably more valuable than the one next door that has been deferring maintenance, and that difference will start showing up in price. Verifying warrantability before you offer is now the highest-value ten minutes in a Miami condo purchase.
HOA fees, assessments, and what you are really signing up for
A Miami condo’s monthly fee is not a service charge — it is your share of an ageing building’s operating and capital costs, and it moves.
Typical monthly HOA in this market runs $1,000 to $2,000 for a mainstream unit, before any special assessment. What it covers varies enormously: some buildings include water, cable and valet; others charge separately for parking and storage. Comparing two buildings on monthly fee alone tells you very little until you know what each fee buys.
The number that actually hurts is the special assessment — a one-off levy for structural work, and post-Surfside they are common. A building that has completed its milestone inspection and funded its reserves has usually already absorbed that pain. A building that has done neither has it ahead.
Ask for the last three years of budgets, not just the current one. A fee that has risen 40% in three years is telling you something the listing will not.
Association approval and rental restrictions
Two things regularly surprise buyers from outside Florida.
Many Miami condominium associations require board approval of the purchaser. That can mean an application, a fee, references, a credit check and an interview — and it takes time you need to build into the contract. It is not a formality in every building.
Rental rules vary wildly and change. Some buildings permit short-term rentals; many require a minimum lease of six or twelve months, and some cap the number of units that may be rented at any time. If your plan involves renting the unit, confirm the current rule in the declaration — and check whether the board has been moving toward restricting it, because that trend has been one-directional in Miami.
Where the Money Is Actually Moving
Beneath the headline softness, the top of the market is accelerating. In the first quarter of 2026 the $1 million-plus condo segment recorded 424 closed sales — up 15.2% year over year and 25.4% on the previous quarter — at a median of $1.84 million. Yet the median price per square foot fell to $1,040, down 3.7%.
Above $2 million the pattern is sharper: 204 sales, up 25.9%, at $1,381 per square foot — down 11.6%. More buyers, transacting faster, paying less per foot. That is what a buying window looks like from the inside.
Condo prices have held flat or risen in 163 of the last 176 months, appreciating 105% over the past decade. This is a soft patch in a long uptrend, not a collapse.
Competing When Half the Market Pays Cash
54.2% of Miami condo sales close in cash, against a national average near 27%. If you are financing, you are frequently the second-choice offer at the same price.
What closes that gap is certainty rather than price — a shorter inspection period, a larger deposit, flexibility on the closing date, and a lender who will speak to the listing agent directly and actually perform. In a 13.7-month market you also have something buyers rarely have here: time to walk away.
Pick Your Lane
- Miami luxury condos — the full market by building and neighbourhood.
- Penthouses — closed sales separated honestly from asking prices.
- Pre-construction — no assessments, no ageing systems, and no carrying costs during the build.
- Lofts · Art Deco · Condo hotels
- Brickell · Sunny Isles Beach — the two deepest condo submarkets.
- Miami homes for sale — if a house is the better trade for you, I will say so.
Miami condos for sale: frequently asked questions
Is it a buyer’s market for Miami condos?
Yes. Miami-Dade condos sat at 13.7 months of supply in January 2026 with 12,509 active listings. Anything above roughly six months favours buyers, and this is more than double that.
What is the median condo price in Miami?
$420,000 as of January 2026. In the $1 million-plus segment the median was $1.84 million at $1,040 per square foot in Q1 2026.
Why are there so many Miami condos for sale right now?
Rising insurance costs and structural assessments following Florida’s post-Surfside inspection and reserve rules have pushed more owners to list. Single-family inventory has not moved the same way.
What is a milestone inspection and does it affect me as a buyer?
It is a structural inspection required for condominium buildings of three or more habitable stories at 30 years from the certificate of occupancy, and at 25 years in some coastal areas. It affects you directly: the findings drive assessments. Ask for the Phase 1 report, and Phase 2 if one exists, before you offer.
What is a SIRS and why does it matter?
A Structural Integrity Reserve Study sets out what a building’s structural components will cost to replace and when. The 2026 reporting threshold is $25,675. Associations that had previously waived reserves were required to begin contributions on 1 January 2026. Compare the reserve balance against what the SIRS recommends.
Do Miami condos still appreciate?
Prices have held flat or risen in 163 of the last 176 months and appreciated roughly 105% over ten years. The current softness is a buying window in a long uptrend, not a reversal.
Do I need cash to buy a condo in Miami?
No, but 54.2% of condo sales close in cash. Financed buyers compete on certainty — shorter contingencies, larger deposits, and a lender who will perform and say so to the listing agent.
Can I get a mortgage on any Miami condo?
No. Around 700 South Florida buildings — 1,438 statewide — are currently ineligible for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac financing, and the list is not public. Units in ineligible buildings typically trade 15% to 30% below comparable units in eligible ones. Verify warrantability before you offer.
What is changing for condo financing in 2026?
Limited Review, which covered roughly 40% of condo project reviews, is eliminated for loan applications dated on or after 3 August 2026. Master insurance per-unit deductibles were capped at $50,000 from 1 July 2026, and the minimum reserve allocation rises from 10% to 15% on 4 January 2027.
How much are HOA fees for a Miami condo?
Commonly $1,000 to $2,000 a month for a mainstream unit before any special assessment, though what the fee covers varies widely between buildings. Ask for three years of budgets, not just the current one.
Before You Offer on Anything
The mistake I see most often is a buyer negotiating hard on price and never reading the board minutes. In this market the price was probably always going to move. The assessment is the thing that changes what you actually paid.
Tell me the building and I will tell you where it stands — inspection status, reserves, what has been voted, and whether the discount you are being offered is a discount or a warning. Get in touch, or read more about how I work.
Sources and further reading
- MIAMI REALTORS — Miami-Dade January 2026 reportMonthly Miami-Dade sales, median price, months of supply and cash share.
- Florida CS/CS/HB 913 (Chapter 2025-175, Laws of Florida)Milestone inspection and structural integrity reserve study requirements, effective 1 July 2025.
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 2026 condo rule changesReserve thresholds, Limited Review elimination and effective dates.
- South Florida condo ineligible-list analysisCounts of ineligible buildings and the price impact on affected units.
Start here
The main sections of The Miami Confidential.