Miami’s single-family market is balanced — not the buyer’s market you may have read about. As of January 2026 there are 6.4 months of supply, the median house sells for $699,990, homes go under contract in 53 days, and sellers are receiving 94% of their original asking price. That is a market where neither side holds the whip hand.
The buyer’s market everyone is talking about is real. It is just happening in condos, not houses. Understanding which of those two markets you are actually shopping in is the single most useful thing you can know before you make an offer in Miami this year.
Houses and condos are two different markets right now
Miami is often discussed as one market. In 2026 it is behaving as two, and the gap is wide enough to change your strategy entirely.
| January 2026 | Single-family homes | Condos |
|---|---|---|
| Months of supply | 6.4 — balanced | 13.7 — buyer’s market |
| Median sale price | $699,990 | $420,000 |
| Median days to contract | 53 | 71 |
| Percent of original list received | 94% | 93% |
| Share of buyers paying cash | 32.7% | 54.2% |
| Sales, year over year | +2.8% | −0.1% |
Six months of supply is the conventional dividing line between a buyer’s and a seller’s market. Houses sit just above it. Condos sit at more than double it. If you have been told to expect deep discounts and motivated sellers, that expectation is accurate for a condo in a large tower and misplaced for a three-bedroom house in Coral Gables.
What the median price does and doesn’t tell you
The $699,990 median covers all of Miami-Dade, from starter houses in the western suburbs to waterfront estates. It is a useful benchmark and a poor shopping guide. What matters more is that single-family prices have risen in 168 of the last 170 months, and have appreciated 159.3% over the past decade. Miami houses have been an extraordinarily consistent asset, and that consistency is why inventory stays tight even when national headlines turn negative.
Above $1 million the picture is not merely stable — it is accelerating. Sales of single-family homes at $1 million and up rose 21.34% year over year, from 164 to 199 closings. The broad market is flat. The upper end is not.
Why so many Miami buyers pay cash
44% of all Miami closings are cash, against a national average of roughly 27%. For single-family homes specifically the figure is 32.7%.
This is not a detail. It shapes how offers are received. A seller weighing a financed offer against a cash offer at the same price will usually take the cash, because it removes the appraisal and the lender from the timeline. If you are financing, the way to compete is not always a higher number — it is a shorter inspection period, a larger deposit, flexibility on the closing date, or a lender who can genuinely perform in three weeks and will say so to the listing agent directly.
International buyers have driven this pattern in Miami for decades, and it is one of the reasons the market behaves differently here than in most of the United States.
Where the million-dollar houses are actually selling
Miami’s house market concentrates in a handful of areas, and they are not interchangeable.
- Coral Gables — the established choice. Mature tree canopy, strict architectural review, consistently strong resale.
- Coconut Grove — walkable, waterfront-adjacent, and the closest thing Miami has to a village.
- Key Biscayne — an island with its own schools and a genuine community feel, a causeway from downtown.
- Bal Harbour — small, discreet, and priced accordingly.
If water access matters more to you than lot size, the calculation changes again — start with Miami waterfront homes, where dockage, bridge height and channel depth often matter more than square footage. And if you have not settled on an area yet, the Miami neighborhoods map is the fastest way to narrow forty-two options down to three.
How to negotiate in a market that is genuinely balanced
The number to hold onto is 94% — the median share of original list price that Miami sellers received in January 2026. Not 85%. Not full price. Sellers are conceding something, but not much.
Three things follow from that. First, lowball offers on well-priced houses waste your time and damage your credibility with listing agents you may face again. Second, the negotiation that actually matters is usually about repairs, timing and contingencies rather than headline price. Third, a house that has been sitting well past the 96-day median is telling you something — either it is mispriced, or there is an issue worth finding before you fall in love with it.
What a Miami house actually costs to own
The purchase price is the number people negotiate. The carrying cost is the number that decides whether they are comfortable in year three.
Property tax. Miami-Dade collects an average of 1.94% of assessed value, with combined millage running roughly 17 to 20 mills depending on the municipality. On a $700,000 homesteaded property in Coral Gables that works out to roughly $11,800 a year; at $1 million, closer to $18,400 without portability.
The homestead exemption is worth having. For 2026 the total exemption is $51,411 — the first $25,000 comes off all taxes including school district, and the remaining $26,411 comes off non-school taxes only. You must file by 1 March of the tax year (shifted to 2 March in 2026) using Form DR-501. Miss it and you wait a year.
Save Our Homes is the part people underestimate. Once homesteaded, your assessed value can rise by no more than the lesser of 3% or CPI — 2.7% for 2026 — regardless of what the market does. Over a decade in a rising market that cap is worth more than most negotiated discounts. If you already own a Florida homestead you can port up to $500,000 of accumulated benefit to a new one, provided you establish it by 1 January of the third tax year after abandoning the old.
If it is not your primary residence, the maths changes. Non-homestead property is capped at 10% a year on the non-school portion, and you get no exemption. A second home or investment property in the same street can carry a materially higher tax bill than your neighbour’s.
Insurance, elevation and the questions that move the premium
Insurance is the cost that surprises out-of-state buyers most, and it varies enormously between two houses that look identical from the kerb.
What drives it: the age of the roof and when it was last replaced, whether the openings are impact-rated, the flood zone and elevation certificate, the distance to open water, and whether a wind mitigation inspection has been done. A house with a new roof, impact glass and a favourable elevation can carry a fraction of the premium of the one next door.
Get quotes before you are under contract, not after. On a waterfront or coastal property the insurance number can move your effective monthly cost by thousands, and it is the single most common reason a Miami deal renegotiates late.
What your budget actually buys
Against a countywide median of $699,990, here is roughly where the brackets land in the areas people actually ask about.
| Budget | What it realistically buys |
|---|---|
| Around the median, ~$700K | A solid family house in the western suburbs, or a smaller property needing work in an established neighbourhood. Not waterfront. |
| $1M – $2M | Coral Gables, Coconut Grove and North Miami proper — good streets, no water frontage. This is the deepest part of the luxury market. |
| $2M – $5M | Larger Gables and Grove houses, Key Biscayne, and entry-level canal frontage. Dockage becomes possible. |
| $5M – $15M | Genuine waterfront with deep-water access, Bal Harbour, Golden Beach, the better Gables Estates streets ($3,100+ per square foot). |
| $15M+ | Sunset Islands and Indian Creek territory — where the Q1 2026 record hit $7,672 per square foot. Much of this trades off-market. |
Above roughly $20 million, expect a meaningful share of what is genuinely available never to appear on a public search. A Bal Harbour waterfront estate traded at $43 million off-market in July 2026.
Buying from out of state or overseas
A large share of Miami buyers are not in Miami when they start. That is normal here and the process accommodates it.
International money is structural rather than occasional — $4.4 billion into South Florida residential real estate in 2025, up 42% on the prior year. Cash purchases run at 44% of all Miami closings against a national average near 27%, which is largely why.
What differs for a remote buyer: you will want video walkthroughs that show the street and the neighbours, not just the interior; you should plan one concentrated trip rather than several scattered ones; and you need someone locally who will tell you when a property is wrong for you rather than showing you six more. Financing as a non-US buyer is available but slower, and it puts you behind cash at the same price.
Is Miami real estate heading for a crash?
The data does not support it. Distressed sales were 2% of all closings in January 2026 — 0.6% short sales and 1.4% bank-owned. Total active inventory of 17,942 listings remains 25% below pre-pandemic January 2019 levels. A crash requires forced sellers and a supply glut. Miami currently has neither in single-family housing.
The honest caveat is that condos are a different story, with rising assessments and insurance costs pushing more owners to list. That is precisely why the two markets have separated, and why the advice for one does not transfer to the other.
Miami homes for sale: frequently asked questions
Is now a good time to buy a house in Miami?
For a single-family home, the market is balanced — 6.4 months of supply as of January 2026, which favours neither buyer nor seller. If you are specifically looking for leverage and discounts, that exists in the condo market, at 13.7 months of supply, not in houses.
How much does a house cost in Miami?
The median single-family sale price in Miami-Dade was $699,990 in January 2026, up 3.7% year over year. Above $1 million, sales rose 21.34% over the same period.
How long does it take to buy a house in Miami?
Houses go under contract in a median of 53 days and spend a median of 96 days on market. Closing typically adds 30 to 45 days after that, faster if you are paying cash.
How far below asking price do Miami homes sell?
Sellers received a median of 94% of their original list price in January 2026. Expect meaningful negotiation on the terms, and modest negotiation on the number.
Do I need to pay cash to compete in Miami?
No, though it helps. Cash accounted for 32.7% of single-family purchases. Financed buyers compete on certainty rather than price — shorter contingency periods, a larger deposit, and a lender who will speak directly to the listing agent.
Should I buy a house or a condo in Miami?
It depends on which market you want to be in. Houses are balanced, appreciate more consistently, and carry no assessment risk. Condos offer more negotiating room and lower entry prices, but require you to examine the building’s reserves and inspection status carefully. See Miami condos for sale for the other side of that decision.
Talk it through before you shortlist
Most of the mistakes I see are not about price. They are about someone shopping in the wrong market for what they actually want — chasing condo-style discounts on houses, or buying a tower unit without asking what the building has voted on.
I have been selling Miami real estate since 2002 and have closed more than a billion dollars in property. If you tell me what you are trying to do, I will tell you plainly which of these two markets you belong in, and which three neighbourhoods are worth your weekend.
Get in touch, or read more about how I work.
Sources and further reading
- MIAMI REALTORS — Miami-Dade January 2026 reportMonthly sales, median price, months of supply and cash share.
- Miami-Dade property tax, homestead and portability 2026Millage, homestead exemption, Save Our Homes cap and portability.