Journal · In the News
By Josh Stein · Florida license SL3057661 · Updated 9 November 2026
On the record: Redfin reported on 3 September 2026 that luxury home-sale prices in the Miami metro rose 18% year over year in the three months from May through July 2026, the biggest increase of the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Non-luxury prices in Miami fell 1.3% over the same period. A separate report says the national luxury entry price is falling. Both can be true, because they measure different things.
Two headlines that seem to disagree
Realtor.com’s luxury report of 14 October 2026 put the national entry point to luxury housing (the 90th percentile of listings) at $1,199,321 in September 2026, 3.6% below a year earlier, and called it the 30th consecutive month of annual price declines. That is a measure of listing prices across the country.
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Last updated November 9, 2026, 3:25 pm
Redfin’s number is different. It tracks what luxury homes actually sold for, in 50 metros, using rolling three-month periods. Nationally, Redfin put luxury sale prices up 5.3% year over year in the three months ending July 2026. So a fall in the national luxury entry price and a rise in Miami luxury sale prices are not in conflict. One is asking prices across the country, the other is closed sales in one metro.
What Redfin found in Miami
Redfin defines luxury as homes estimated to be in the top 5% of a metro area’s price range. For the three months ending July 2026, Redfin’s Miami figures were:
- Luxury median sale price: up 18% year over year.
- Non-luxury prices: down 1.3%.
- Homes for sale (all price tiers): down 18.1%, the third-biggest decline in the U.S.
Redfin links the gap to affluent buyers moving to Florida for taxes, climate and the waterfront. Redfin’s report adds that Miami is now the most expensive of the 10 largest U.S. metros on overall cost of living, citing recent reports.
The slow side of the same market
Redfin’s earlier luxury report, for the three months ending May 2026 (published 30 June 2026), shows a less rosy picture. The typical Miami luxury home spent a median 150 days on the market, 24 more than a year earlier, the largest increase of any metro in that report. Luxury active listings in Miami fell 17.2%, among the largest declines.
So prices at the top were rising, but homes were taking longer to sell, and fewer were listed. Those figures cover a different window from the 18%, so they should be read next to it, not added to it.
What it does not say
Redfin’s figures are for the whole Miami metro, not Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach or any one building. A top-5% cutoff also mixes houses and condos. The report does not say whether the 18% will continue, and I am not making a forecast. A median can also move because of which homes happened to close, not only because of what the same home would fetch.
Why the national picture still matters
The U.S. market overall is soft. Redfin reported on 29 October 2026 that the median U.S. home-sale price was $389,601 in the four weeks ending 25 October 2026, down 0.1% year over year, the first decline in more than three years. For a waterfront buyer, the useful reading is that the top of the Miami market is behaving differently from the country, and from Miami’s own non-luxury tier.
My view
A metro number tells you the mood. If you are buying or selling on the water, the number that matters is what units in your building or your street sold for, and how long they took. Start there.
Where to go from here
The free Miami Buyer’s Guide shows what buyers paid on the county record, and the Sellers Guide covers pricing against recorded sales. For the beach, see Miami Beach, Sunny Isles Beach, Surfside and Bal Harbour.
Josh Stein is a sales associate with LoKation Real Estate. Questions? Call or WhatsApp (305) 695-8257.
Key numbers
- Miami luxury sale prices: +18% year over year, three months through July 2026 (Redfin, 3 Sep 2026).
- Miami non-luxury prices: −1.3% over the same period (Redfin, 3 Sep 2026).
- Miami luxury median days on market: 150, +24 days year over year, three months through May 2026 (Redfin, 30 Jun 2026).
- U.S. luxury entry price: $1,199,321 in September 2026, −3.6% year over year (Realtor.com, 14 Oct 2026).
FAQ
Are Miami luxury home prices rising or falling?
Redfin’s sale-price data showed luxury prices up 18% year over year in the three months through July 2026. Realtor.com’s national luxury entry price, a different measure, was down 3.6% in September 2026.
What counts as luxury in the Redfin report?
Homes estimated to be in the top 5% of a metro area’s price range.
Does this mean waterfront condos are up 18%?
No. Redfin’s figure covers the Miami metro’s top 5% of homes, not oceanfront condos or any single building. Building-level sales are on the county record.
Sources
- Redfin, Dana Anderson, “Florida’s Luxury Market Pulls Away From the Pack, With Miami and Tampa Posting Double-Digit Price Increases”, 3 September 2026: https://www.redfin.com/news/luxury-housing-market-florida-july-2026
- Redfin, “A Tale of Two Markets: Luxury Home Prices Are Rising 3 Times Faster Than Non-Luxury Prices”, published 30 June 2026, updated 13 July 2026: https://www.redfin.com/news/luxury-housing-market-may-2026
- Realtor.com September 2026 Luxury Housing Report, 14 October 2026 (read as the release text on Finviz): https://finviz.com/news/402194/luxury-prices-fall-for-30th-straight-month-as-big-price-tags-fail-to-guarantee-top-school-marks-realtorcom-finds
- Redfin, weekly housing market update, 29 October 2026: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-sale-prices-fall-october-2026
All sources read 9 November 2026. This is not investment advice and not a forecast.
How has your building held its value? The Miami Condo Index ranks Miami condo buildings by their county sale records: real price per square foot, turnover and four-year change.